It's not certain flu season will strike as it did last year, but health officials are girding for another stretch of illness after winter's viral outbreaks socked Illinois and the Chicago area.
Scientists and public health officials say they can't forecast how bad this season might be. Influenza epidemics do happen, but their timing, impact or subtypes can be erratic. The last flu season — a rather severe one, experts say — was unusual also because it peaked earlier than normal.
Nationally, World Health Organization data show the number of detected influenza A and B viruses at the peak of the 2012-13 season reached some of its highest levels since a 2009 pandemic.
At least 183 flu-related hospitalizations in city intensive care units were logged from the end of September 2012 through May, according to a spring flu report from the Chicago Department of Public Health. That was nearly three times the amount seen during the same period in the prior season.
Statewide, provisional statistics from last September through this September log 817 flu-related ICU hospitalizations and 135 reported deaths.
"Flu is serious," said Dr. Julie Morita, director of the city health department's immunization program. "It's not a cold. It's not a minor illness. People can get seriously ill and die."
Though the current risk for infection in Chicago is low, officials are accelerating efforts to inoculate the public before the season intensifies. That means a familiar scene is unfolding across the city and state: Public vaccination clinics popping up. Advertising campaigns with sports stars touting that "the best shot is a flu shot."
"Flu is very unpredictable," said Dr. LaMar Hasbrouck, director of the Illinois Department of Public Health. "Some strains cause a lot more infections, some cause more prolonged symptoms. Some are more virulent and associated with more deaths. So really, from year to year, we really don't know what we're going to get."
So experts use a blend of advanced research and guesswork to decide on a vaccine formulation for a given year. Then it's a matter of getting it into human bloodstreams.
Vaccination rates for children are "quite good," Morita said, in part to federal vaccine programs meant for those without health coverage. But it can be a bit more of a struggle to prompt adults to roll up their sleeves for a yearly shot.
"Part of it is awareness," Morita said. "So we are working really hard throughout the state and through the city to make sure we make vaccine available to adults and also get that message out."
The message seemed to reach those who packed the basement of St. Genevieve's Church for a Friday health fair and vaccination clinic. Dozens of residents, many of them Spanish-speaking senior citizens, bared shoulders for nurse's needles. Vendors hawked insurance and orthopedic shoes. Cholesterol and blood pressure screening booths were equally busy.
"As you can see, you can hardly walk in this place," said Ald. Ray Suarez, 31st, who helped organize the church health fair. "This is a year's work."
Officials scheduled more than 60 one-day flu shot clinics across Chicago through Dec. 14. Such events are meant for those who lack health care providers, since vaccines are available at an array of doctor's offices, workplaces and retail stores. But clinics won't turn away anyone who's looking for a free injection.
"People don't practice preventative care themselves during their middle ages," said Marcia Levin, a vaccine program manager with the city health department.
"As adults, we go through that period in our lives where we're 'invincible' and 'immortal,'" she said. "And then as you get older, you relearn those preventative health visits that were kind of forced on you as a child. So we have a lot of adults who routinely don't get flu shots until they turn 65."
Injectable flu vaccines this season are meant to protect against three viruses expected to be most common. That includes the H1N1 influenza strain known as swine flu that sparked a recent pandemic, one strain of influenza B and the H3N2 virus that contributed to dozens of intensive care admissions in Chicago last season.
Some nasal-administered vaccines and a small portion of injectable ones will protect against four flu subtypes, Morita said. But officials urged residents to vaccinate with available formulas, rather than wait for a version that may or may not be available.
"My sense is that the demand is up and that people are aware and seeking the vaccine out," said Morita, the city immunization director. "Some of our clinics have been very busy this year."
Aside from vaccines, Hasbrouck, the state medical director, urged a "three C's" approach to prevent the spread of illness: clean hands regularly; cover coughs and sneezes with a tissue or sleeve; and contain germs by staying home when sick.
"We're all at some risk for getting the flu, even if we're all healthy and never had it before," he said. "Just because you've been able to avoid it in the past doesn't mean you're necessarily insulated."
jjperez@tribune.com
Twitter @PerezJr
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